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Reasoning Models Don’t Always Say What They Think
Yanda Chen
Anthropic
Chain-of-thought (CoT) offers a potential boon for AI safety as it allows monitoring
a model’s CoT to try to understand its intentions and reasoning processes. However,
the effectiveness of such monitoring hinges on CoTs faithfully representing mod-
els’ actual reasoning processes. We evaluate CoT faithfulness of state-of-the-art
reasoning models across 6 reasoning hints presented in the prompts and find: (1)
for most settings and models tested, CoTs reveal their usage of hints in at least 1%
of examples where they use the hint, but the reveal rate is often below 20%, (2)
outcome-based reinforcement learning initially improves faithfulness but plateaus
without saturating, and (3) when reinforcement learning increases how frequently
hints are used (reward hacking), the propensity to verbalize them does not increase,
even without training against a CoT monitor. These results suggest that CoT mon-
itoring is a promising way of noticing undesired behaviors during training and
evaluations, but that it is not sufficient to rule them out. They also suggest that in
settings like ours where CoT reasoning is not necessary, test-time monitoring of
CoTs is unlikely to reliably catch rare and catastrophic unexpected behaviors.
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View paper →Living a piety-led life beyond Muharram: becoming or being a South Asian Shia Muslim in the UK
Sufyan Abid Dogra
Contemporary Islam·2019·6 citations
No abstract available
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View paper →Railroads and American Economic Growth: A “Market Access” Approach
Dave Donaldson, Richard Hornbeck
This article examines the historical impact of railroads on the U.S. economy, with a focus on quantifying the aggregate impact on the agricultural sector in 1890. Expansion of the railroad network may have affected all counties directly or indirectly—an econometric challenge that arises in many empirical settings. However, the total impact on each county is captured by changes in that county’s ‘‘market access,’’ a reduced-form expression derived from general equilibrium trade theory. We measure counties’ market access by constructing a network database of railroads and waterways and calculating lowest-cost county-tocounty freight routes. We estimate that county agricultural land values increased substantially with increases in county market access, as the railroad network expanded from 1870 to 1890. Removing all railroads in 1890 is estimated to decrease the total value of U.S. agricultural land by 60%, with limited potential for mitigating these losses through feasible extensions to the canal network or improvements to country roads
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