Cash transfers do not increase traumatic injury and mortality: evidence from Alaska
Ruby Steedle, Robert E M Pickett, Tasce Bongiovanni, Hailie Dono, Byungkyu Lee, Erica Hobby, Anne Zink, Sarah K Cowan
American Journal of Epidemiology5/7/2026·DOI·Read paper
Abstract
Abstract
Direct cash transfers are an increasingly common tool to alleviate poverty, but critics argue that recipients will use this cash in irresponsible and potentially dangerous ways. To investigate the impact of cash payments on traumatic injury and death, we turn to Alaska’s long-standing statewide cash transfer, the Permanent Fund Dividend. Nearly every Alaskan receives a substantial amount of money (average $1500 per person) on a single day in the fall of each year. Using interrupted time series analyses paired with 2009-2019 data on all traumatic injuries (n = 36 556) seen at Alaska hospitals from the state’s trauma registry and all deaths (n = 43 170) from vital records, we examine whether the payment causes an increase in traumatic injury and mortality in the days following disbursement. Despite commonly held fears, we find no such increases in our data across multiple specifications. These results provide no evidence to suggest that direct cash payments increase the risk of injury or death.
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