Prediction markets are remarkably accurate, yet the source of this accuracy remains poorly understood. The conventional view attributes it to crowd wisdom, whereby prices aggregate information from a large and diverse pool of participants. We show instead that accuracy is driven by a small minority of informed traders. Using the universe of transactions from a large prediction market platform, we identify these traders and show that they, around 3% of all accounts, generate the bulk of price discovery. Their trades predict future prices and final outcomes, make prices more accurate throughout a market's lifespan, and react to news the moment it arrives. The remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it. Their trades generate most of the volume, but little of the information, and their losses flow as profits to the informed minority. Prediction market accuracy thus reflects the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of the crowd.
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