As far as I'm aware, Anthropic is the only AI company with official AGI timelines[1]: they expect AGI by early 2027. In their recommendations (from March 2025) to the OSTP for the AI action plan they say:
> As our CEO Dario Amodei writes in 'Machines of Loving Grace', we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027. Powerful AI systems will have the following properties:
>
> * Intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines—including biology, computer science, mathematics, and engineering.
>
> [...]
They often describe this capability level as a "country of geniuses in a datacenter".
This prediction is repeated elsewhere and Jack Clark confirms that something like this remains Anthropic's view (as of September 2025). Of course, just because this is Anthropic's official prediction[2] doesn't mean that all or even most employees at Anthropic share the same view.[3] However, I do think we can reasonably say that Dario Amodei, Jack Clark, and Anthropic itself are all making this prediction.[4]
I think the creation of transformatively powerful AI systems—systems as capable or more capable than Anthropic's notion of powerful AI—is plausible in 5 years and is more likely than not within 10 years. Correspondingly, I think society is massively underpreparing for the risks associated with such AI systems.
However, I think Anthropic's predictions are very unlikely to come true (using the operationalization ...
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