Forecasting industrial induced tipping points in first nations’ land use in northeast British Columbia
Xiaojing Lu, Naomi Owens-Beek, Ryan McKay, Jim Webb, Xulin Guo, David Natcher
The Extractive Industries and Society3/1/2024·DOI·Read paper
Abstract
This study examined the impact of industrial development on the land use practices of the Saulteau First Nations (SFN) in northeastern British Columbia. Using household surveys and spatial data analysis, we identify ex-ante the point(s) at which the cumulative environmental changes brought about by industrial activities induce tipping points in First Nations land use. Used here, tipping point is a threshold at which incremental or immediate ecological impacts stemming from industrial disturbance leads to a non-linear change in the social and economic systems of the SFN. These tipping points may be the result of a series of cumulative impacts (i.e., culmination of roads, seismic lines, well pads) or a single and abrupt disturbance (i.e., coal mine) that results in immediate displacement. Findings indicate that when industrial density approaches ≥0.044 km2/km2, SFN land use may continue but under duress. However, once the industrial density exceeds 0.084 km2/km2, SFN members are forced to abandon traditionally used areas for other less disturbed areas outside the core of their territory. This research was conducted under the auspices of the Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment (RSEA) for northeast British Columbia, which intends to use the results of this study as a vehicle for collaboration and speculative forecasting that balances development against the rights and needs of First Nations.
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